阅读笔记:战略思维的艺术
书籍信息:http://www.douban.com/subject/3069880/
作者: (日)御立尚资
译者: 冯江
ISBN: 9787121061707
页数: 108
定价: 20.0
出版社: 电子工业出版社
装帧: 平装
出版年: 2008-5-1
是用MindManager做的笔记,所以这样看感觉很凌乱。建议下载图片或者是mindmanager格式的文件看。
MindManager格式图片下载地址:http://bbs.21manager.com/dispbbs-201815-1.html
这本书是在回答一个问题,如何制定(独特的)战略?
我们学习过很多的战略理论,但在实践中,却面对现实无从下手。
战略的制定过程是一个应用隐性知识的过程,作者试图将这种隐性知识显性化。
如何制定独特战略?
1 定式:已经成型的框架理论
2 洞察力
2.1 速度
= 对定式进行加工、应用, 在此基础上提出各种假说, 进行验证。
= 计算机采用的是穷尽的算法, 而人则从已有的知识中去选择, 进行组合,建立假说并验证。
2.1.1 确认模型:从战略论的精髓中确认并识别模型
See also: 图表思考:将自己思考并想表现的事物 转换为模型,通过模型化参入各种条件变量
= 要将模型按概念进行分类总结
成本类:规模曲线、经验曲线、成本习性(固定成本、可变成本;规模、范围)
客户类:市场细分、(转换成本、忠诚度、品牌)
结构类:V型曲线、优势矩形、解构
竞争类:先行优势、先发制人
组织能力类:时间周期竞争、组织学习、知识管理
2.1.2 图表思考:将自己思考并想表现的事物 转换为模型,通过模型化参入各种条件变量
= 用“反平均化”的意识解读图表。 将平均化的信息打散, 通过逐条分析来把握全局。
2.1.3 假想演练
= “双重人格”思考:假想一个处在完全对立面的自己
以批判的眼光看待自己提出的假说
针对可能问题进行思考,提高假说质量
援引大量数据,反复多次
2.2 视角
= 提出独特假说 所需要的思考工具
2.2.1 开拓视野的“广角镜”:发现潜在市场、拓展价值链、用进化论思考
= 在历史轴上确立现在所处的位置, 现在是因何而出现的, 再依据这些原因预测未来。
2.2.2 精深专一的“聚焦镜”:
模拟客户体验、
杠杆效应= 在哪里施力能更有效带动其他关联部分? 企业可以将处于中上层的消费者作为支点, 通过他们来带动其下若干阶层的消费。
寻找穴位= 增加熟客的数量,对利润的增加有很大的贡献。
2.2.3 使思维跳跃的“反转镜”
逆市操作
寻找特异点= 在开发新产品时,要寻找消费者中是否存在采用特殊方法的消费者, 还要透彻观察特殊消费者与平均值之间的相差的区域。 这些例外中,可能蕴涵着创新的钥匙。
类比思考:适用于 A的方法是否适用于B?= 经常有意识地去训练自己思考 “为什么买这件产品”、“为什么是这样的销售模式” 将事物的联系分成“对象”、“场合”、“原因”等维度, 再将这些维度中的内容逐个转换思考。
飞信聊天记录的导出
囧,中国挪动的飞信,居然不能直接导出聊天记录。
google了一下,发现了一个方法,网上有高人呀。请登陆下面的链接吧,具体方法见该页面。
What counts for?-abilities
Part 2 Abilities
Different people have different kinds of abilities, while there may some abilities that we should have in common. I’d like to talk about it in four parts, knowledge, solve problem, personal management, and communicate with others.
Knowledge
The knowledge you know.
Whether what you know is valuable can be affected by two factors: the usefulness of the knowledge and how many people compete with you. You must have something which you can earn your life. If what you know is useless, then, it means little, if not nothing to you. There is a story[1] said that a man, Zhu Ping-man, spent lots of money and time in study how to butcher dragon, while when he succeed in learning it, he found nowhere he could use the skill. So, make sure what you learn can make some contribution to the society or is needed by others. Besides the knowledge you know, competition is the other factor that you should take into consideration. The less people compete with you, the easier you can gain benefit from it.
Francis Bacon said “Knowledge is power”, in fact, knowledge itself has no power, but people who own knowledge will have consciousness to use it. Generally speaking, the more you know about something, the easier you can do it well.
Learn new knowledge.
It’s a time of knowledge explosion. What we know does count for something, but what count more is the ability to learn new knowledge and use it. We often encounter the task that we know nothing about it but have to complete it within a short time.
Solve Problem
Life is the process of facing problems and solving them. Everyday, we face many problems. Some of them are easy, such as where to have lunch; some of them are hard to solve, how to be the president of U.S.
Whether a problem is easy or hard, the solution can be separated into four parts:
- Define the problem (where you want to go or what you want, where you are). First, ask yourself where you want to go rather than where you are. Why? Without knowing where you want to go, you can’t step forward. The situation you’re in is so complex that it would be hard for you to understand where you are. Ask yourself where you want to go will enable you know what you should take into consideration, which will help you understanding where you are easier.
- Guesstimate some possible solutions (what factors are needed for each solution). Well, a problem may be easy to define but hard, or impossible, to solve. Such as, how to live outside the solar system. Use MECE (Mutually Exclusive, Collectively Exhaustive) principle to help you to break down the problem, you can use mind map to help.
- Choose one solution and executive it. When you have some possible solutions, you have to choose one and executive it. You’re facing tradeoffs when you make decision. Design a criterion system and endow weight for each factor. If you find it’s too complex to do that, ask yourself, what I value most? What I can’t give up or scarify?
- Adjust your action and change it if necessary. Now, you have chosen a solution and executive it. The conditions change and are different from previous ones when you make decisions. You need to adjust your action when you find situations have changed or if you find a better solution. Don’t be satisfied with what you have achieved, you can make progress if you keep thinking and acting.
Personal Management
Get control of you time and life.
The most deficit resource in our life is time. It’s such a big topic that I find it’s hard for me to talk about it. Maybe these books (How to get control of your time and your life, Getting things done, Ready for anything, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, etc.) that related to time management can help you.
What I think useful for me are:
1. One time do one thing. We are surrounded by so many things that we are often interrupted to do another thing while left what we are doing into abandoned. Maybe after a long time, we think of what we did, such as read a book. We picked up the book and read from the first page again. If you need to have a rest, just rest, don’t do anything, then, go on doing what you did.
2. Clarify what can be done in three minutes and comparative long time. If it can be done in a short time, do it at once; else, write it down and arrange time for it.
3. Identify what are important and what are not. Focus your time on those important things.
Control motion and pressure.
Happiness, sadness, and pressure are part of our life. Don’t deny them, learn how to deal with them.
Communicate with others
Communication means “a process by which information is exchanged between individuals through a common system of symbols, signs, or behavior” (Merriam-Webster). It’s not the process that you get information passively or throw out what you think. You need to get information from others and understand what they think and want.
[1] 《庄子 杂篇 列御寇三十二》,“朱泙漫学屠龙于支离益,单千金之家,三年技成而无所用其巧。”
东西方思维的差异
《思维的版图》
又名: The geography of thought
译者: 李秀霞
作者: (美)尼斯贝特
ISBN: 9787508605289
页数: 145
定价: 25.0
出版社: 中信出版社
装帧: 平装
出版年: 2006-2-1
对一个方面的重视,难以避免会削弱其对立的一面。但是否恪守中庸之道是最好的呢?不同的方式,都有各种的优势。偏执狂在很多人看来是不好的,但Steven Jobs, Andy Grove却是成功的偏执狂。 一些在某些领域成功的人物常常有一些让旁人觉得不可思议的怪癖。如果某一方面是你成功的重要因素,那么,为了让这个因素发挥出它更大的作用,你也许要考虑将它推向一个极致。
东方思维和西方的思维方式,到底该如何去选择取舍?每个人都可以去选择一些自己更能发挥自己能力的方面,而在另外的一些方面有所弱化。
科学,一种解释世界的方式,它的思维的根基只能是来自西方,而在东方思维的土壤中,是没有办法产生的。
摘录书中的一些句子:
中国人认为事物是不断变化的,但是总是回到原始的状态。中国人关注的是更广阔范围的事件;研究的是事物之间的关系;中国人认为不了解整体就无法理解局部。西方人生活在一个更为简单、更具有确定性的世界中;西方人关注的是恒久不变的物体或人而不是更大的画面;西方人认为他们可以控制各种事情,因为他们知道控制物体行为的规则。”—彭凯平
希腊人关注抽象特质,中国哲学十分注重那些极为具体的感觉印象。
东方与西方的一些差异:
l 关注和感知的模式,东方人关注环境而西方人关注物体,东方人比西方人更喜欢研究事件之间的关系。
l 关于世界构成的基本假设,东方人看到的是物质,而西方人看到的是物体。
l 对环境的控制能力的认知:西方人比东方人更相信对环境的控制能力。
l 对静止和变化的看法:西方人看到的是静止而东方人看到的变化。
l 解释事件的方式:西方人关注物体,东方人看到的是包括环境在内的更为广大 的网络。
l 组织世界的习惯:西方人喜欢归类而东方人更强调各种关系。
l 对形式逻辑规则的运用:西方人比东方人更喜欢用逻辑规律来理解事件。
l 辩证法的运用:东方人在遇到对抗时喜欢中庸之道,而西方人更喜欢坚持自己观点。
东亚的人们不像西方人那样关注个人的目标或自我提高。他们所关注的是集体的目标和协调行动。
东方人不断受到相互依赖性的信息的熏陶,而西方人则不断受到独立性的熏陶。
中国人倾向于把行为归因于背景,而美国人则把同样的行为归因于做事的人。
现代的西方人(1)比东方人更倾向于对物体进行归类;(2)发现把有关各种属性的规则运用到具体的事例中,以这种方式来学习新的范畴比较容易;(3)对范畴进行了更多的归归纳,也就是说,从某个范畴的具体事件概括其他事件或者是对范畴进行整体概括。
事实是什么?
今天在google reader上看到一篇文章《啤酒与尿布的故事可以休矣》。“其实到现在我还在怀疑"啤酒和尿布"故事的真实性。这个故事最开始应该是从一些做商务智能(BI) 的软件厂商那里传出来的,神乎其神。按理说,这个故事应该给超级市场以无限启发才对,可实际上在超市里面观察一下,发现根本没有类似的物品摆放,相近的都很少。更多的时候,"聚类"才是最大的关联性。”
不知道有谁在超市发现啤酒和尿布在一起的?我没有发现过。超市的东西大多是聚类摆放的。只有少数的大件的东西是单独摆在显眼的地方。
再说几个传言的东西,大家想一下是否真实。
1. “六六六”为什么叫“六六六”,是因为有人经历了666次的失败才实验出来的吗?
2. “温水煮青蛙”,放到开水中的青蛙一下子就跳出来了吗?我无法得到这个传说的出处,也许是来自 查理·芒格 1995年在哈佛法学院的演讲, 中文(人类误判心理)英文(尚未找到)。
答案:
1. “六六六”的学名六氯环己烷,hexachlorocyclohexane,分子式 C6H6Cl6,现在,你知道为什么它叫“六六六”了吧?
2. 请搜索“青蛙 开水 给学生真的做这个实验的”,看看你有什么发现。很抱歉,我到现在也没有找到原始出处。
《晨间日记的奇迹》读后感
谢谢Jennifer和她的朋友,不然我也就现在看不到这本书。(PS,如果你对这本书感兴趣,请访问这里)。
为什么早上写日记?写日记是为了什么?
早上写日记的好处在于,你写完了,马上就采取行动去实现,而不是等到第二天再去做。当你在热情最高的时候去做你要做的事情,而不是什么都不做。
早上写日记,更能敦促我们要注意控制做事情的时间。晚上写日记,养成的结果就是,我们习惯在没有压力的情况下做事,因为我们可以将晚上的入睡时间不断往后推。
不要仅仅是记录下事情或当时的情绪,而要都记录下来。仅仅记录情绪,之后你就忘记的当时发生的什么,对你以后没有作用。我们记日记不仅是为了记录发生了什么,而是希望能够对以后有所帮助。
当然,这本书不仅在说要早上写日记,作者还提出了一种写日记的方法。但方法的实践,倒还是有待摸索。尚不是特别清楚。
What counts for?-characters (part 1)
Today, a friend of mine asked me to talk something about his strengths and weaknesses. In fact, though we are good friends, it’s hard for me to talk about this topic. That’s one of my weaknesses.
So, instead of telling him how I think of him, I’d like to talk about “what counts for”, which means, what is important for us in our life. Before I talk about detailed aspects, I’d like to distinguish what a person needs to have into two parts: character, ability. Though character and ability required for a person vary according to what s/he does, there is something in common that we should have.
Character is “the complex of mental and ethical traits marking and often individualizing a person, group, or nation” (Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary). There are some characters that count for, and I’d like to talk a few of them, which I value much.
l Down to earth and diligent. Nothing is easy. If you want to master something, it would be more complex that you thought, take time to study the subtle interact in it. I remember a piece of article which talked about 20/80 rule. You can know about 80 percents knowledge by spending 20 percents time, but what really count are those 20 percents that you have to spend lots of time on them. Because, those 80 percents are easy to understand, you can know, while other also can know. What distinguish you and others is, you spend more time in mastering those additional 20 percents knowledge which they don’t know.
l Active and keen to new things. The more we know, the more we know we don’t know. New things emerge day after day. What you know does matter something, but what matter more is what you don’t know. When we came to the world, we know nothing. But at that time, we were curious. We learnt how to show that we were thirsty, something we wanted. Gradually, we grow up and lose the curiosity. Once we lose curiosity, we lose the chance of growing. Some people might be interested how I know something they hadn’t heard of, the answer is very simple, curiosity. I didn’t know much, but whenever I came cross something new, I will take time to seek more about it if I think it’s interesting, visit the website it’s from, search it with Google or Wikipedia (will you search what is wikipedia if you don’t know what it is?). Also, I don’t care about that I may fail or waste some time. We learn from the mistake we made. If we fear of making mistake, we can’t make progress. In Chinese culture, making mistake is not acceptable, and parents often warn their children not do something, which is partly responsible for children lose curiosity for the world.
l Open-mind and Magnanimous. Open-mind has some overlap with keen to new things, but what I want to talk about is, taking time to think of other aspects. You might think you know something, and then you deny taking time to think the opposite aspect. The exist of different opinions values much, and we can learn lot from other aspects. John Stuart Mill talked something about the value of debate on his famous book, On Liberty, which can be downloaded at Gutenberg.org (Shamed on that it can’t be visit in Mainland China, while you can download ebooks in Guterberg.org by emule). Magnanimous means "showing or suggesting nobility of feeling and generosity of mind" (Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary). Why magnanimous is important? Without it, it would be hard, if not impossible, for a person to work with intelligent and people who might be less smart than him/her. S/he will be jealous of people who is more intelligent than him/her and look down upon less smart one. In this case, S/he can get alone well with other colleagues.
l Frank. Frank is the most powerful method for effective communication. Though sometimes too frank may hurt the relationship, you need to learn something about the art of communication. But frank is so important that Jack Welch talked about it with a full chapter in his book, Winning, just after the first chapter, mission and values.
l Cooperative. In modern world, we are no longer the Robinson lived on the desolate island. We work with other to finish a task. Don’t regard yourself as a versatile person, even if you’re, your time is limited, and in some aspects, they can do much better than you.
l Modest. Modest is a kind of virtue. Be arrogant will not only encumber you from having good relation with others, but obstruct you from getting progress as well. What should be take care is, what is true modest, it’s not the facial etiquette, but the deep respect on others that matters.
l Considerate. Whatever you do, take time to think of, what is the effect? Especially think of the effect on those important persons in your life. If you don’t take affection on others into consideration, how can you make good relationship with other members and create great things? You will need help from others.
I will talk about abilities in the next piece, please be patient.
One Billion Customers
Thanks to 乱翻书, who translated it into Chinese and posted it on Yeeyan.com. Without his work, I think many people in China, like me, will be unable to read this book.
This books does teach me something. Well, I don’t want to talk about much on blog.
If you’re interested in this book, why not go to www.yeeyan.com and read it? Yeeyan is a good website, I like it. and I believe you will like it as well.
Some software you may be interested in
1. MindManager. MindManager will help you generate ideas. you can write topic, sentence, word, freely on it, and drag it from one subtopic to another one. Want to know more about it, please visit http://bbs.21manager.com/index.asp?boardid=161.
2. EyeGuard. a smart but useful one, I use it to remind me that I should have a rest after a long time work.
3. Lingoes. I know that many people use iciba(金山词霸), try Lingoes, you will love it. smart but smart. www.lingoes.cn
4. FOX PDF editor. Can PDF be edited? yes, fox PDF editor will help you do that.
5. HyperSnap. want to catch up some pictures? try it.
6. MyMoneyMaster. you want to write down how you spend you money? it will help you.
7. igoogle. don’t forget it. I really like it. how to use it? well, that completely depends on you. Whatever, you should have a gmail account before you use igoogle.
8. google desktop search. you have too many files and sometimes be lost in files? why not use it to help you?
9. FtpList. you want to tell your friends the list of ebook you have collected? how to tell him/her? use ftplist to generate the file name list.
10. depends on you. there are so many tools you can find, in my opinion, any problem you meet, you can find some software to help you. if you don’t know how to find, why not use google?
Perception is reality
王冉在《华尔街大地震后的几点思考》说到:
表象即现实,也就是英文常说的Perception is reality。我在《谁谋杀了贝尔斯登》中曾经说:“贝尔斯登之所以在48小时之内迅速崩盘,并不是因为它真的需要崩盘,而仅仅是因为人们怀疑它可能要崩盘。这正是这件事最可怕的地方…支撑现代金融体系最重要的基础不是物理世界中的实物资产,而是人们对于这个体系本身的信心以及这个体系中参与者在其他参与者心目中的信用。一旦信心动摇,一旦信用不再,再高的大厦也会在顷刻之间轰然坍塌,速度甚至比911中的世贸中心还要快。”上面这段话,我完全可以把“贝尔斯登”四个字换成“雷曼兄弟”原原本本再说一遍。
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